98th Academy Award Predictions

The Super Bowl of cinema is near.

This Academy Awards, the 98th ceremony in history, is headlined by the title fight of “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners.” In one corner, a dramatic, comedic thriller. In the other, an elevated horror action picture. The Oscars won’t be limited to this face-off, though.

Other films will be recognized in several categories, and there will be surprises along the way. As always, I’m weighing in with my expectations for who is likely to win, as well as my thoughts as to who or what is most deserving.

Before we get into the predictions, here’s a helpful glossary of acronyms ahead: GG = Golden Globes. WGA = Writers Guild of America. DGA = Directors Guild of America. ACE = American Cinema Editors. SAG = Screen Actors Guild. ASC = American Society of Cinematographers. AA = Animation, or Annie, Awards. ADG = Art Directors Guild. MPSE = Motion Picture Sound Editors. BAFTA = British Academy of Film and Television Arts. CCA = Critics’ Choice Awards.

Best Picture

• “Bugonia”
• “F1”
• “Frankenstein”
• “Hamnet”
• “Marty Supreme”
• “One Battle After Another”
• “The Secret Agent”
• “Sentimental Value”
• “Sinners”
• “Train Dreams”

Who Will Win:

This is going to come down to “One Battle” and “Sinners.” While the latter has picked up some steam in the last couple of weeks, I still say “One Battle” edges out the victory. It earned top honors from the GG, DGA, ASC, ADG, BAFTA and split the WGA. While not a full lock, it is in a good position to win.

Who Could Win:

If not “One Battle After Another,” it definitely will be “Sinners.” The film picked up an important ensemble win from SAG, and has been right on the heels of “One Battle” over the last month. It has a shot.

Who Should Win:

Of those nominated, it should go to “Bugonia.” The film was a riot, absolutely funny, while still being effective thematically. Definitely one of the strongest films released in 2025, up there with Yorgos Lanthimos’ best. I’d give Best Picture to it.

Snubbed:

“No Other Choice” absolutely deserved to be nominated. Get used to this because it’s going to come up a lot. The South Korean production was my No. 1 movie of the year, an absolutely brilliant dark comedy about our time. Travesty it was snubbed. “Blue Moon” was also more deserving than a few of the nominees here.

Best Director

• Chloé Zhao for “Hamnet”
• Josh Safdie for “Marty Supreme”
• Paul Thomas Anderson for “One Battle After Another”
• Joachim Trier for “Sentimental Value”
• Ryan Coogler for “Sinners”

Who Will Win:

This is where things get interesting. Paul Thomas Anderson won the DGA for “One Battle After Another,” but I feel this is where we could see what I call a top movie split. While “Sinners” may not win Best Picture, it could have a shot at getting Best Director for Ryan Coogler.

It could be like it was a decade ago, when “Moonlight” won Best Picture, while “La La Land” took home Director. This may be my biggest gamble of the ceremony, but I’m going with Coogler on this one.

Who Could Win:

 Of course if I’m wrong, that means it’s obviously going to Anderson in this category. Again, this is a tight race, so he’d definitely be the other selection.

Who Should Win:

 “Sentimental Value” was my No. 3 film of the year, so I’d definitely pick Trier to win the award in this spot. He crafted a masterful human drama. If not him, I’d also be happy with Zhao taking the award.

Snubbed:

 Yorgos Lanthimos certainly was deserving of a spot for “Bugonia.” I get it’s a stacked category, but still. Park Chan-wook also deserved a nod for “No Other Choice.”

Best Actor

• Timothée Chalamet in “Marty Supreme”
• Leonardo DiCaprio in “One Battle After Another”
• Ethan Hawke in “Blue Moon”
• Michael B. Jordan in “Sinners”
• Wagner Moura in “The Secret Agent”

Who Will Win:

 Michael B. Jordan is in a great position here. Not only did he win the SAG for lead actor, he also has been getting praise for taking on a dual role in “Sinners.” While Timothee Chalamet has been a contender, winning the GG and CCA, it appears Jordan will be walking away with the trophy Sunday night.

Who Could Win:

 If not Jordan, Chalamet’s name will likely get called for the Best Actor award. He’s in a good position. There’s a very outside chance for DiCaprio, but he’s a major dark horse.

Who Should Win:

Of the lineup here, it should absolutely go to Ethan Hawke. It’s his fifth nomination, and his work in “Blue Moon” was a career defining performance. It’s about damn time he wins, and he deserves it.

Snubbed:

This was a competitive category, but Jesse Plemmons deserved a nomination for his great work in “Bugonia.”

Best Actress

• Jessie Buckley in “Hamnet”
• Rose Byrne in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
• Kate Hudson in “Song Sung Blue”
• Renate Reinsve in “Sentimental Value”
• Emma Stone in “Bugonia”

Who Will Win:

This is pretty much Buckley’s to lose. She’s won the BAFTA, CCA, GG and SAG. It’s about as good of a lock as you can get. There’s maybe a small outside chance for Byrne to play spoiler. But I see this going to Buckley.

Who Could Win:

Byrne did get a GG, which helps her chances, though she won thanks to the ceremony’s split category. Her performance did get a ton of praise, though, so she’s a dark horse.

Who Should Win:

This is a fantastic category. The award could go to anyone and I’d probably be happy. But if I were a voter, I’d likely lean toward Reinsve.

Snubbed:

Extreme long shots, I know. But I would have loved Lucy Liu, who gave a career best performance in “Rosemead,” or Eva Victor for “Sorry, Baby” to get included.

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio Del Toro in “One Battle After Another”
• Jacob Elordi in “Frankenstein”
• Delroy Lindo in “Sinners”
• Sean Penn in “One Battle After Another”
• Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value”

Who Will Win:

This is a huge tossup. Penn won the BAFTA and SAG. Skarsgard earned a GG. Elordi took home the CCA. It’s a fierce competition. However, Penn’s SAG puts him in the front. All things considered, he wins.

Who Could Win:

If not Penn, I could definitely see this going to Skarsgard, who received about an equal amount of praise for what he did in ‘Sentimental Value” as what Penn received.

Who Should Win:

Elordi did quite good in “Frankenstein.” However, this one is easy. Skarsgard all the way. He was excellent.

Snubbed:

Another long shot, but I would have been happy to see Michael Cera get a nomination for his work in “The Phoenician Scheme.

Best Supporting Actress

• Elle Fanning in “Sentimental Value”
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in “Sentimental Value”
• Amy Madigan in “Weapons”
• Wunmi Mosaku in “Sinners”
• Teyana Taylor in “One Battle After Another”

Who Will Win:

What began as a seemingly competitive race has narrowed considerably. Now, Madigan is a clear frontrunner, taking the CCA and SAG. While Mosaku earned the BAFTA, this one is still likely in Madigan’s grasp. She will win on Sunday.

Who Could Win:

If not Madigan, this will go to Mosaku for her performance in “Sinners.” While Taylor received a GG, she’s a fairly distant third.

Who Should Win:

Of those nominated, I’d want either Fanning or Lilleaas to take home the top prize. If I were voting, I’d pick Lilleaas. She powered a role that could have easily been overlooked.

Snubbed:

I think Mari Yamamoto of “Rental Family” and Son Ye-jin of “No Other Choice” were both phenomenal on screen in their respective roles, and absolutely should have received more attention for their work than they have this season. That includes Oscar nominations.

Best Casting

• “Hamnet,” Nina Gold
• “Marty Supreme,” Jennifer Venditti
• “One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulukundis
• “The Secret Agent,” Gabriel Domingues
• “Sinners,” Francine Maisler

Who Will Win: 

We’re in uncharted territory here, because this category is brand new. However, considering it won SAG for ensemble, “Sinners” is in fantastic position to win this.

Who Could Win:

If not “Sinners,” my guess would be a win for either “One Battle” or “Hamnet.”

Who Should Win:

This is a place where “Sinners” or “Hamnet” would both be deserving. The lead role positions were wonderfully and effectively cast.

Snubbed:

I think considering the cast it boasted, “The Phoenician Scheme” deserved a nomination here. I think the argument could be made for “Nouvelle Vague,” too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• “Bugonia,” Screenplay by Will Tracy
• “Frankenstein,” Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
• “Hamnet,” Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
• “One Battle After Another,” Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
• “Train Dreams,” Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar

Who Will Win: 

“One Battle After Another” is a strong frontrunner here, especially since it doesn’t have to face its direct competition. Look for it to take home the top prize in this category.

Who Could Win:

If there were to be an upset, it would be “Hamnet” winning this.

Who Should Win:

Of those nominated, “Bugonia” is likely the strongest script. Though “Hamnet” and “Frankenstein” would also be fine choices.

Snubbed:

“No Other Choice,” which was based on the 1997 novel, “The Ax.”

Best Original Screenplay

• “Blue Moon,” Written by Robert Kaplow
• “It Was Just an Accident,” Written by Jafar Panahi
• “Marty Supreme,” Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
• “Sentimental Value,” Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
• “Sinners,” Written by Ryan Coogler

Who Will Win:

The scenario is similar for “Sinners.” Its main competition isn’t here, so it will likely win the award. “Marty Supreme” and “Sentimental Value” are present, but don’t have the same momentum, as “Sinners” took the WGA for original.

Who Could Win:

“Marty” and “Sentimental” have an outside shot, but it’s limited.

Who Should Win:

The prize should go to the great and complex “Sentimental Value.” The dialogue heavy “Blue Moon” would also be a correct choice.

Snubbed:

“Sorry, Baby” and “The Phoenician Scheme” were deserving of nominations here, though it was a competitive year.

Best Cinematography

• “Frankenstein” by Dan Laustsen
• “Marty Supreme” by Darius Khondji
• “One Battle After Another” by Michael Bauman
• “Sinners” by Autumn Durald Arkapaw
• “Train Dreams” (Netflix) Adolpho Veloso

Who Will Win:

“One Battle After Another” is in a prime position to win this. It took the ASC award putting it in the frontrunner spot. It also earned the top honor from the BAFTA in the category.

Who Could Win:

If not “One Battle,” “Sinners” will likely take it. Though “Train Dreams” has a slight chance, too.

Who Should Win:

“Frankenstein” would be a worthy winner here. But the category overall is quite good. While not a big fan of “Train Dreams,” it was visually great.

Snubbed:

“No Other Choice” looked fantastic and had numerous unique shots that were excellent. It deserved a spot this year.

Best Film Editing

• “F1” by Stephen Mirrione
• “Marty Supreme” by Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
• “One Battle After Another” by Andy Jurgensen
• “Sentimental Value” by Olivier Bugge Coutté
• “Sinners” by Michael P. Shawver

Who Will Win:

Another interesting competition. “Sinners” and “One Battle” split awards for drama and comedy at the ACE. Because of its other success this season, though, I can see “Battle” edging “Sinners.”

Who Could Win:

If not “One Battle,” it will probably go to “Sinners.” However, “F1” has an outside shot.

Who Should Win:

Of this group, I’d go with the fast paced, intense editing of “Marty Supreme.”

Snubbed:

“Bugonia” was deserving here for its editing. “The Phoenician Scheme” and “Wake Up Dead Man” were also worthy, too.

Best Costume Design

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Deborah L. Scott
• “Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley
• “Hamnet,” Malgosia Turzanska
• “Marty Supreme,” Miyako Bellizzi
• “Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter

Who Will Win:

This part of the Academy loves its period pieces, meaning “Frankenstein” is in a great spot. Plus, it’s won the BAFTA, CCA and a top prize from the Costume Designers Guild. It should take the award.

Who Could Win:

“Sinners” is a contender, though, thanks to its success this season. Plus, it’s also a period piece. It can pull an upset, as can “Hamnet.”

Who Should Win:

This category is really stacked this year, and “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty” and “Sinners” are all worthy. If I was voting, though, it would be “Frankenstein” for me.

Snubbed:

I think “The Phoenician Scheme” or “Blue Moon” were more deserving than the “Avatar” film.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Frankenstein,” Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
• “Kokuho,” Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
• “Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
• “The Smashing Machine,” Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
• “The Ugly Stepsister,” Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg

Who Will Win:

“Frankenstein” is again the frontrunner. It won the top award from the Makeup and Hairstylists Guild, plus the BAFTA and CCA in the category. Additionally, the monster looked fantastic.

Who Could Win:

If not “Frankenstein,” “Sinners” again has a good shot, especially for some of the vampire looks.

Who Should Win:

I’d probably vote for “Frankenstein” because of how the monster looked. Though I will say I was impressed by the work in “The Smashing Machine.”

Snubbed:

Considering Cynthia Erivo is entirely green in the movie, I’d say “Wicked: For Good” deserved a spot. Mixed reviews be damned, this is about the makeup.

Best Production Design

• “Frankenstein” – Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
• “Hamnet” – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
• “Marty Supreme” – Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
• “One Battle After Another” – Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
• “Sinners” – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne

Who Will Win:

Both “Frankenstein” and “One Battle” picked up wins from the ADG, but I think the former’s position is stronger just because of the period piece scale. “Frankenstein” also won in the category from the BAFTA and CCA, as well as the Set Directors Society.

Who Could Win:

If not “Frankenstein,” “One Battle” has a good chance thanks to its own ADG win, but “Sinners” has a shot, too.

Who Should Win:

Production design was one of the biggest strengths, among other positives, in “Frankenstein.” It is definitely worthy of the award.

Snubbed:

I think “Nouvelle Vague” and “The Phoenician Scheme” were also worthy options for this category.

Best Sound

• “F1” by Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
• “Frankenstein” by Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
• “One Battle After Another” by José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
• “Sinners” by Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
• “Sirāt” by Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas

Who Will Win:

 “F1” lacked a win from the Motion Picture Sound Editors, but earned wins from the BAFTA, CCA, Cinema Audio Society and Association of Motion Picture Sound. That puts the film in prime position to win.

Who Could Win:

Though it didn’t pick up many wins at other ceremonies, “One Battle” has a chance thanks to its success this year and strong sound work in action set pieces. “Sinners” also picked up a MPSE win, so it has a chance, too.

Who Should Win:

Probably the best aspects of “F1” was the sensational sound work. There’s no doubt it’s worthy of an award. However, “One Battle” and “Sinners” have legitimacy here, too.

Best Visual Effects

• “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” by Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
• “F1,” by Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
• “Jurassic World Rebirth,” by David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
• “The Lost Bus,” by Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
• “Sinners,” by Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean

Who Will Win:

The last two “Avatar” movies have won this category and I think a threepeat is in store. It’s already picked up wins from the BAFTA, CCA and the Visual Effects Society. It would be a surprise to not win it.

Who Could Win:

If not “Avatar,” “F1” has an outside shot.

Who Should Win:

There’s no doubt the third “Avatar” was brilliant when it comes to special effects, so it is a deserving winner here.

Snubbed:

This is a good lineup, but all things considered, I would have put “Predator: Badlands” in over the “Jurassic” flick.

Best International Feature

• “The Secret Agent,” A CinemaScópio Production; Brazil
• “It Was Just an Accident,” A Les Films Pelléas Production; France
• “Sentimental Value,” A Mer Film/Eye Eye Pictures Production; Norway
• “Sirāt,” An El Deseo Production; Spain
• “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” A Mime Films Production; Tunisia

Who Will Win:

This is a real toss-up. “Sentimental Value” earned a BAFTA, while “The Secret Agent” earned the GG and CCA. Because of its other nominations, though, “Value” likely wins.

Who Could Win:

If not “Value,” it’s going to be “The Secret Agent.”

Who Should Win:

Of those nominated, and what I’ve seen, “Sentimental Value’ certainly should get the trophy.

Snubbed:

Again, “No Other Choice” should absolutely be here, and it’s a total shame that it’s not.

Best Live Action Short Film

• “Butcher’s Stain” – Meyer Levinson-Blount and Oron Caspi
• “A Friend of Dorothy” – Lee Knight and James Dean
• “Jane Austen’s Period Drama” – Julia Aks and Steve Pinder
• “The Singers” – Sam A. Davis and Jack Piatt
• “Two People Exchanging Saliva” – Alexandre Singh and Natalie Musteata

Who Will Win:

“Two People Exchanging Saliva.”

Who Could Win:

“Jane Austen’s Period Drama.”

Who Should Win:

“Jane Austen’s Period Drama.”

Best Animated Feature

• “Arco” – Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
• “Elio” – Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
• “K-Pop Demon Hunters” – Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
• “Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” – Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
• “Zootopia 2” – Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino

Who Will Win: 

Of this year’s lineup, “K-Pop Demon Hunters” has garnered the most attention and accolades. It won the AA, on top of the CCA and GG. While “Zootopia 2” picked up the BAFTA, all things still point toward “Demon Hunters.”

Who Could Win:

“Zootopia 2” has a shot because of its BAFTA win and Disney’s campaigning power, but it’s slim. “Arco” has a tiny chance, picking up the AA for Best Independent Animated Feature, but it is a minuscule shot.

Who Should Win:

 I didn’t’ see “Little Amelie,” but of the four I did watch, “Demon Hunters” was the strongest for sure. It was an awesome flick. It should get the award.

Best Animated Short Film

• “Butterfly” – Florence Miailhe and Ron Dyens
• “Forevergreen” – Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears=
• “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” – Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski
• “Retirement Plan” – John Kelly and Andrew Freedman
• “The Three Sisters” – Konstantin Bronzit

Who Will Win:

“Butterfly.”

Who Could Win:

“The Girl Who Cried Pearls.”

Who Should Win:

Any of them but “The Three Sisters.” In all honesty, “The Retirement Plan” and “The Girl Who Cried Pearls” were the strongest in my view.

Snubbed:

Kick out “The Three Sisters,” the Irish adventure short “Éiru” deserved that spot.

Best Documentary Feature

• “The Alabama Solution” – Andrew Jarecki and Charlotte Kaufman
• “Come See Me in the Good Light” – Ryan White, Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro and Stef Willen
• “Cutting Through Rocks” – Sara Khaki and Mohammadreza Eyni
• “Mr. Nobody Against Putin” – David Borenstein and Pavel Talankin
• “The Perfect Neighbor” – Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne, Nikon Kwantu and Sam Bisbee

Who Will Win:

“Mr. Nobody Against Putin” likely has some momentum thanks to its subject matter, considering the ongoing war in Ukraine. It also won the BAFTA. However, “The Perfect Neighbor” has picked up more nominations overall this year, including DGA and PGA, plus a CCA win. It’s likely going to get the award.

Who Could Win:

If not “Neighbor,” it will go to “Mr. Nobody Against Putin.”

Who Should Win:

This was an exceptional lineup, and all of these films honestly deserve recognition. However, I’d vote for “The Perfect Neighbor.”

Snubbed:

“2000 Meters to Andriivka” earned BAFTA and CCA nominations. It also won the DGA and WGA documentary awards. Again, this was a loaded category, but this is definitely a snub.

Best Documentary Short Film

• “All the Empty Rooms” – Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones
• “Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” – Craig Renaud and Juan Arredondo
• “Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”” – Hilla Medalia and Sheila Nevins
• “The Devil Is Busy” – Christalyn Hampton and Geeta Gandbhir
• “Perfectly a Strangeness” – Alison McAlpine

Who Will Win:

“All the Empty Rooms.” 

Who Could Win:

“The Devil is Busy.”

Who Should Win:

Any of them but “Perfectly a Strangeness.” I’d say “All the Empty Rooms,” it was definitely the most effective. Though, this was (mostly) a strong category.

Best Original Score

• “Bugonia” by Jerskin Fendrix
• “Frankenstein” by Alexandre Desplat
• “Hamnet” by Max Richter
• “One Battle After Another” by Jonny Greenwood
• “Sinners” by Ludwig Goransson

Who Will Win:

“Sinners” has won the BAFTA, CCA and GG in this category, as well as the top prize from the Hollywood Music in Media. Music was such a big factor in “Sinners,” so it will very likely win.

Who Could Win:

If not “Sinners,” “One Battle” has a slight chance at winning, but it is a small window.

Who Should Win:

Considering the importance of music in “Sinners,” I’m good with it winning. Though the score in “Bugonia” was also quite good.

Best Original Song

• “Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless.” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters.” Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
• “I Lied To You” from “Sinners.” Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
• “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!” Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
• “Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams.” Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave

Who Will Win:

“Golden” picked pup the CCA and GG already, plus it received the Best Song prize from Hollywood Music in Media. Considering that, and it being part of a global sensation, it’s pretty much a lock.

Who Could Win:

It’s hard to imagine any other song winning here. Maybe “I Lied to You,” but the chances are slim.

Who Should Win:

I’m all in on the “Golden Train,” it should get the prize.