97th Academy Award Predictions

Oscar Sunday has finally arrived and it’s time to honor the best films of 2024, for the most part.

Awards will be handed out to winners in more than 20 categories, and like always, I’m going to do my best to predict who gets a statue. Additionally, as I’ve done annually, I also include the possible spoiler in the category, as well as my takes on who should win and what deserved to make the cut.

Find out my expectations for every category during tonight’s ceremony.

At the conclusion of the 97th Academy Awards, my final tally came to 17 right and 6 wrong.

Best Picture

• “Anora”
• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Conclave”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “I’m Still Here”
• “Nickel Boys”
• “The Substance”
• “Wicked”

Who Will Win: “Anora” has surged recently to frontrunner status, picking up a big victory from the Producers Guild of America award.

Who Could Win: At this point, if not “Anora,” the other two likely options are “Conclave” or “The Brutalist.” “The former won top prizes from the SAG and BAFTA, while the latter earned the big Golden Globes big honor.

Who Should Win: “Anora” didn’t make my top 10 list but it was damn close, so I wouldn’t be upset with it winning. However, my No. 1 film of the year was “The Brutalist” and I’m rooting for it to surprise.

Snubbed: I think the biggest snub this year is “September 5” going completely overlooked. It was one of 2024’s best and was largely ignored.

Other great films not included in this year’s Best Picture lineup were “Maria,” “Kinds of Kindness,” “The Apprentice,” “Love Lies Bleeding” and “Queer.” I’m not surprised some didn’t get picked, but still.

Prediction: RIGHT, “ANORA” won Best Picture.

Best Director

• Sean Baker, “Anora”
• Brady Corbet “The Brutalist”
• James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
• Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
• Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”

Who Will Win: Baker is in the lead, getting top honors from the Directors Guild of America. It’s his to lose.

Who Could Win: Corbet did win the directing honor from the BAFTA and at the Golden Globes, so he could possibly snag it.

Who Should Win: I think “The Brutalist” was a monumental achievement in filmmaking, so I want Corbet to win.

Snubbed: Edward Berger for “Conclave,” Luca Guadagnino for “Queer,” Ali Abbasi for “The Apprentice,” Yorgos Lanthimos for “Kinds of Kindness,” Pablo Larrain for “Maria” or Tim Fehlbaum for “September 5” would have all been acceptable over Audiard.

Prediction: RIGHT, Baker won Best Director.

Actor in a Leading Role

• Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”
• Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
• Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
• Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
• Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”

Who Will Win: Brody should win the night, having already taken the BAFTA, Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award in the category.

Who Could Win: Chalamet took home the SAG recognition so he could pull an upset.

Who Should Win: This is a really stacked category with a lot of great performances. With that said, I think Brody’s performance was the most powerful. I’ll also say, Stan did award-worthy work, too.

Snubbed: No doubt about it, the answer is Daniel Craig for “Queer.” Again, this category this season is loaded, it’s just unfortunately one of those years where one performance has to be cut. It happened to be Craig, who was superb in his film.

Prediction: RIGHT, Brody won Best Actor

Actress in a Leading Role

• Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
• Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
• Mikey Madison, “Anora”
• Demi Moore, “The Substance”
• Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”

Who Will Win: Moore is just about locked in. She’s won the Golden Globe, Critics Choice and SAG Awards in the section, and she should cap it with an Oscar.

Who Could Win: If not Moore, it will be Madison, who earned BAFTA and Spirit Award wins.

Who Should Win: Of those nominated, and having not seen “I’m Still Here” unfortunately, I’ll have to say I’m good with either Moore or Madison winning.

Snubbed: Angelina Jolie gave one of the best performances of her career in “Maria” and she should have been nominated, if not be in competition to win. I will also say, I think Amy Adams should have had more recognition for “Nightbitch.”

Prediction: WRONG, Madison won Best Actress.

Actor in a Supporting Role

• Yura Borisov, “Anora”
• Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
• Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
• Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
• Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”

Who Will Win: Culkin has won the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG. He will win the Oscar, too.

Who Could Win: There’s no chance of it happening, but possibly Borisov considering the surge happening with “Anora.”

Who Should Win: Either Strong or Pearce. They did the best acting work in supporting roles this year, especially Strong. Each would be, in my opinion, 10 times more deserving than Culkin.

Snubbed: Stanley Tucci and Adam Pearson gave award-caliber performances this year in “Conclave” and “A Different Man” respectively and probably should have earned recognition.

Prediction: RIGHT, Culkin won Best Supporting Actor.

Actress in a Supporting Role

• Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
• Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
• Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
• Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
• Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”

Who Will Win: It’s similar to Culkin. Saldana has won the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG. She will win the Academy Award, too.

Who Could Win: It’s unlikely, but there’s a sliver of a chance that Grande could steal it.

Who Should Win: Of the lineup, definitely Jones, who I think easily gave the best performance of the five listed here. She was superb. Barbaro would be a good choice, too.

Snubbed: Obviously these would all be major long shots, but I think Katy O’Brian in “Love Lies Bleeding,” Hong Chau in “Kinds of Kindness,” Dolly de Leon in “Ghostlight” or Elle Fanning in “A Complete Unknown”all gave better performances than some that were nominated.

Prediction: RIGHT, Saldana won Best Supporting Actress.

Adapted Screenplay

• “A Complete Unknown”, Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks
• “Conclave,” Screenplay by Peter Straughan
• “Emilia Pérez,” Screenplay by Jacques Audiard in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
• “Nickel Boys,” Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
• “Sing Sing,” Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

Who Will Win: “Conclave” does have some momentum with writing wins from the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globes and University of Southern California. It’s the likely winner tonight.

Who Could Win: “Nickelboys” picked up a big victory from the Writers Guild of America, so it could pull an upset.

Who Should Win: Of those nominated, I think “Conclave” is the strongest. I wrote in my review how it had a sort of Aaron Sorkin vibe with fast paced dialogue, featuring a mix of drama and sly humor, making it compelling.

Snubbed: Both “Queer” and “The Apprentice” absolutely deserved to be nominated for the category and it’s a shame they didn’t, while “Perez” did.

Prediction: RIGHT, “Conclave” won Adapted Screenplay.

Original Screenplay

• “Anora,” Written by Sean Baker
• “The Brutalist,” Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
• “A Real Pain,” Written by Jesse Eisenberg
• “September 5,” Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Co-Written by Alex David
• “The Substance,” Written by Coralie Fargeat

Who Will Win: “Anora” is probably going to take this, having earned the WGA victory.

Who Could Win: If not “Anora,” it will be “A Real Pain,” which won the BAFTA.

Who Should Win: Of those nominated, either “The Brutalist” or “September 5” would be most deserving, but I’d be good with “Anora” winning, too.

Snubbed: “Kinds of Kindness” didn’t have much of a chance, but I think it was worthy.

Prediction: RIGHT, “Anora” won Original Screenplay.

Animated Short Film

• “Beautiful Men”
• “In the Shadow of Cypress”
• “Magic Candies”
• “Wander to Wonder”
• “Yuck!”

Who Will Win: “Yuck.”

Who Could Win: “Wander to Wonder” won the animation community’s Annie Award, so it has a shot.

Who Should Win: “Magic Candies.”

Prediction: WRONG, “In the Shadow of Cypress” won Animated Short.

Costume Design

• “A Complete Unknown,” Arianne Phillips
• “Conclave,” Lisy Christl
• “Gladiator II,” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
• “Nosferatu,” Linda Muir
• “Wicked,” Paul Tazewell

Who Will Win: “Wicked” is the frontrunner here and should earn the prize.

Who Could Win: “Conclave” or “Nosferatu.”

Who Should Win: “Wicked” or “Nosferatu.”

Snubbed: “Dune: Part Two.”

Prediction: RIGHT, “Wicked” won Best Costume Design.

Live Action Short Film

• “A Lien”
• “Anuja”
• “I’m Not a Robot”
• “The Last Ranger”
• “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”

Who Will Win: It’s close between “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” and “A Lien.” Considering the political climate, though, I think “A Lien” takes it.

Who Could Win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent” if not “A Lien.”

Who Should Win: “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent.”

Prediction: WRONG, “I’m Not a Robot” won Live Action Short

Makeup and Hairstyling

• “A Different Man,” Mike Marino, David Presto and Crystal Jurado
• “Emilia Pérez,” Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini
• “Nosferatu,” David White, Traci Loader and Suzanne StokesMunton
• “The Substance,” Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli
• “Wicked,” Frances Hannon, Laura Blount and Sarah Nuth

Who Will Win: “The Substance” has had a few victories in this category from other organizations and it should win tonight, too.

Who Could Win: “Wicked.”

Who Should Win: “The Substance” or “A Different Man.” But all the nominees are good.

Prediction: RIGHT, “The Substance” won Makeup and Hairstyling.

Original Score

• “The Brutalist,” Daniel Blumberg
• “Conclave,” Volker Bertelmann
• “Emilia Pérez,” Clément Ducol and Camille
• “Wicked,” John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
• “The Wild Robot,” Kris Bowers

Who Will Win: “The Brutalist” won awards from the BAFTA and Society of Composers and Lyricists, and it will likely have a good Oscar Sunday here.

Who Could Win: “Conclave.”

Who Should Win: “The Brutalist.”

Snubbed: “The Apprentice.”

Prediction: RIGHT, “The Brutalist” won Best Score.

Animated Feature Film

• “Flow”
• “Inside Out 2”
• “Memoir of a Snail”
• “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
• “The Wild Robot”

Who Will Win: “The Wild Robot” is the clear frontrunner.

Who Could Win: If not “The Wild Robot,” it will be “Flow.”

Who Should Win: “The Wild Robot” was an excellent animated adventure and would certainly get my vote.

Prediction: WRONG, “Flow” won Best Animated Feature.

Cinematography

• “The Brutalist”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “Maria”
• “Nosferatu”

Who Will Win: “The Brutalist” will likely win.

Who Could Win: “Maria,” which won the award from the American Society of Cinematographers, could pull an upset.

Who Should Win: I would like “The Brutalist” to win but I also wouldn’t mind seeing “Maria” pick up a win on the night.

Snubbed: “Queer,” “The Apprentice” and “September 5.” Any of them could take the “Perez” spot.

Prediction: RIGHT, “The Brutalist” won Best Cinematography.

Documentary Feature Film

• “Black Box Diaries”
• “No Other Land”
• “Porcelain War”
• “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
• “Sugarcane”

Who Will Win: Most likely “No Other Land,” which centers on the Israel-Palestine conflict.

Who Could Win: “Porcelain War,” which is about the War in Ukraine. Depends which the Academy wants to pick to make a statement. After what happened in the Oval Office, some voters may be wishing they could change their votes.

Who Should Win: I sadly was unable to see either of the frontrunners because of limited availability. Of the three I did see, I would say “Black Box Diaries,” but take that with a grain of salt because two went unwatched.

Prediction: RIGHT, “No Other Land” won Documentary Feature.

Documentary Short Film

• “Death by Numbers”
• “I Am Ready, Warden”
• “Incident”
• “Instruments of a Beating Heart”
• “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”

Who Will Win: “I Am Ready, Warden” appears to be the frontrunner.

Who Could Win: “The Only Girl in the Orchestra.”

Who Should Win: I didn’t see “Death by Numbers” because it wasn’t available for streaming. Of the other four, either “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” or “Incident” were the strongest in my view.

Prediction: WRONG, “The Only Girl in the Orchestra” won.

Film Editing

• “Anora” Sean Baker
• “The Brutalist” David Jancso
• “Conclave” Nick Emerson
• “Emilia Pérez” Juliette Welfling
• “Wicked” Myron Kerstein

Who Will Win: “Conclave” won the BAFTA so it has an edge. This year the American Cinema Editors won’t have their awards announced until March 14, making this one tough to predict.

Who Could Win: “Anora” or “Wicked.”

Who Should Win: “The Brutalist” or “Conclave.”

Snubbed: It is a total travesty that “September 5,” a film all about the organized chaos in a newsroom as it covers a huge breaking event that was fantastically edited didn’t get a nomination here.

Prediction: WRONG, “Anora” won Best Editing.

International Feature Film

• “I’m Still Here,” Brazil
• “The Girl with the Needle,” Denmark
• “Emilia Pérez,” France
• “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
• “Flow,” Latvia

Who Will Win: “I’m Still Here.”

Who Could Win: “Emilia Perez.”

Who Should Win: Anything but “Emilia Perez.”

Prediction: RIGHT, “I’m Still Here” won International Feature.

Original Song

• “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez,” Music by Clément Ducol and Camille, Lyric by Clément Ducol, Camille and Jacques Audiard
• “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight,” Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
• “Like a Bird” from “Sing Sing,” Music and Lyric by Abraham Alexander and Adrian Quesada
• “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez,” Music and Lyric by Camille and Clément Ducol
• “Never Too Late” from “Elton John: Never Too Late,” Music and Lyric by Elton John, Brandi Carlile, Andrew Watt and Bernie Taupin

Who Will Win: “El Mal” from “Emilia Perez.”

Who Could Win: “The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight.”

Prediction: RIGHT, “El Mal” won Best Song.

Production Design

• “The Brutalist,” Production Design: Judy Becker, Set Decoration: Patricia Cuccia
• “Conclave,” Production Design: Suzie Davies, Set Decoration: Cynthia Sleiter
• “Dune: Part Two,” Production Design: Patrice Vermette, Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
• “Nosferatu,” Production Design: Craig Lathrop, Set Decoration: Beatrice Brentnerová
• “Wicked,” Production Design: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Lee Sandales

Who Will Win: “Wicked” has swept the Art Directors Guild, BAFTA, Critics Choice and Set Decorators Society of America Awards. It will continue its win streak.

Who Could Win: “The Brutalist.”

Who Should Win: I would say “The Brutalist” but this is a very good category with a lot of deserving films.

Snubbed: Would have been difficult with a loaded category, but “Furiosa” or “Maria” were nomination-worthy, too.

Prediction: RIGHT, “Wicked” won Production Design.

Sound

• “A Complete Unknown”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Emilia Perez”
• “Wicked”
• “The Wild Robot”

Who Will Win: “Dune: Part Two” has earned quite a few wins, including the BAFTA, Motion Picture Sound Editor and Association of Motion Picture Sound. It should probably get the nod.

Who Could Win: “A Complete Unknown” did win the honor from the Cinema Audio Society, so it could upset.

Who Should Win: “Dune: Part Two.”

Snubbed: “Furiosa” and “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.”

Prediction: RIGHT, “Dune: Part Two” won Best Sound.

Visual Effects

• “Alien: Romulus”
• “Better Man”
• “Dune: Part Two”
• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
• “Wicked”

Who Will Win: This one could be close. “Dune: Part Two” is the frontrunner and likely winner, having already clinched the BAFTA and Critics Choice honors.

Who Could Win: However, “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” won the award from the Visual Effects Society. It could play spoiler.

Who Should Win: “Dune: Part Two” and “Kingdom” are both deserving.

Snubbed: This was a nice line-up, but I would have been happy to see “Furiosa” get a nomination, too.

Prediction: RIGHT, “Dune: Part Two” won Visual Effects.