96th Academy Award Predictions

Oscar Sunday is here at last and I think it’s shaping up to be a good night for “Oppenheimer.”

As always, I’ve come up with my predictions for who will win, but that’s not all. I also list possible upsets, how I would have voted, and a note a couple areas where If eel there were snubs.

Find all my thoughts on each category below.

Best Picture

• American Fiction
• Anatomy of a Fall
• Barbie
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Past Lives
• Poor Things
• The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: “Oppenheimer” is pretty much a lock here. It has won the top prize from the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Screen Actors Guild, Golden Globes and BAFTAs. An Oscar will likely be the cherry on top of a great season.

Who Could Win: There has been a lot of love for “The Holdovers,” “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Poor Things” this season. Maybe one of them could upset, but I still doubt it.

Who Should Win: “Oppenheimer” was one of my top three films of the year. It’s an incredible character study of a historic figure. That said, my No. 1 film of the year was “Past Lives,” which I wish had a better chance.

Best Director

• Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Justine Trier, Anatomy of a Fall

Who Will Win: Again, another seeming lock for “Oppenheimer,” as Nolan has won every precursor.

Who Could Win: It would be a stunning upset, but there’s a tiny chance for either Lanthimos or Glazer. Tiny.

Who Should Win: I think “Oppenheimer” is masterful film, so Nolan is well deserving. That said, this is a great category so, I’d be OK with anyone winning.

Snubbed: As a lover of the film “Past Lives,” I think Celine Song should have been nominated.

Best Actor

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro
• Colman Domingo, Rustin
• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Who Will Win: Here’s where we have a bit more of a race. Murphy is the frontrunner, but Giamatti is at his heels. I’m going with Murphy here, mainly for his SAG win.

Who Could Win: That said, I could easily see the Academy giving Giamatti the award not only for his great performance, but also honoring his fantastic career.

Who Should Win: As much as I loved “Oppenheimer,” I am rooting for Giamatti here, who really made “The Holdovers” work on another level.

Best Actress

• Annette Bening, Nyad
• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
• Carey Mulligan, Maestro
• Emma Stone, Poor Things

Who Will Win: Either Stone or Gladstone. The latter has a SAG and a Globe, the former has a BAFTA and also a Globe. I think Gladstone in the end will edge Stone.

Who Could Win: Obviously if not Gladstone, it’s very likely Stone will win her second Oscar.

Who Should Win:  Anyone but Bening? She is the weak link in the category to be honest. I am rooting for Gladstone, here, though.

Snubbed: Instead of Bening, Cailee Spaeny should have been given the nomination for her outstanding work in “Priscilla.” Her or Natalie Portman for “May December.”

Best Supporting Actor

• Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
• Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
• Ryan Gosling, Barbie
• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

Who Will Win: Another likely lock. Downey Jr. has won every award leading up to the ceremony, and he will probably take home the big statue.

Who Could Win: If not Downey Jr., maybe Ryan Gosling for “Barbie,” but chances are slim.

Who Should Win: I think Downey Jr. gave one of his best performances in his career during “Oppenheimer” so I’m on board with that. Though Ruffalo was great, too.

Snubbed: I’m a fan of Gosling’s work, but I think Charles Melton was way more deserving of a nomination for his work in “May December.”

Best Supporting Actress

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
• America Ferrera, Barbie
• Jodie Foster, Nyad
• Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Who Will Win: Deservedly so, Randolph is leaving everyone in the dust this award season. Sunday will make it a clean sweep.

Who Could Win: In the minuscule chance Randolph falls short, maybe Blunt.

Who Should Win: Randolph all the way.

Snubbed: Give me Julianne Moore from “May December” over Foster or Ferrera.

Best Original Screenplay

• Anatomy of a Fall, Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
• The Holdovers, David Hemingson
• Maestro, Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
• May December, Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
• Past Lives, Celine Song

Who Will Win: This is a stacked category, but all indicators point to “Anatomy of a Fall.”

Who Could Win: If not “Anatomy,” it’s likely “The Holdovers.”

Who Should Win: Broken record, but “Past Lives,” though I’d be happy with “Holdovers.”

Best Adapted Screenplay

• American Fiction, Cord Jefferson; based on the novel Erasure by Percival Everett
• Barbie, Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach; based on characters created by Ruth Handler
• Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan; based on the biography American Prometheus: The Triumph and Tragedy of J. Robert Oppenheimer by Kai Bird and Martin J. Sherwin
• Poor Things, Tony McNamara; based on the novel by Alasdair Gray
• The Zone of Interest, Jonathan Glazer; based on the novel by Martin Amis

Who Will Win: “American Fiction” is the one to beat in another loaded category.

Who Could Win: If not “Fiction,” probably “Oppenheimer” or “Barbie.”

Who Should Win: Of the two, I thought “Poor Things” was better, but I’d be extremely happy still with “American Fiction” winning.

Best Animated Feature

• The Boy and the Heron, Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
• Elemental, Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
• Nimona, Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan, and Julie Zackary
• Robot Dreams, Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé, and Sandra Tapia Díaz
• Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, and Amy Pascal

Who Will Win: The award is very likely going to “Across the Spider-Verse.”

Who Could Win: If not “Spider-Man,” it will most definitely be “Boy and the Heron.”

Who Should Win: “Nimona.” “Nimona.” ‘Nimona.” As one of the few that didn’t like “Spider-Verse” and thought “Heron” was fine, “Nimona” was my favorite animated picture of the year and it’s what I would vote for.

Best International Feature

• Io capitano (Italy), directed by Matteo Garrone
• Perfect Days (Japan), directed by Wim Wenders
• Society of the Snow (Spain), directed by J. A. Bayona
• The Teachers’ Lounge (Germany), directed by İlker Çatak
• The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom), directed by Jonathan Glazer

Who Will Win: “The Zone of Interest.”

Who Could Win: “Society of the Snow” or “The Teachers’ Lounge.”

Best Documentary Feature

• 20 Days in Mariupol
• Bobi Wine: The People’s President
• The Eternal Memory
• Four Daughters
• To Kill a Tiger

Who Will Win: The front-runner is “20 Days in Mariupol” and it will stay that way.

Who Could Win: “Four Daughters.”

Who Should Win: I think “20 Days in Mariupol” was the strongest of this year’s line-up and definitely worthy of an Oscar.

Best Documentary Short

• The ABCs of Book Banning
• The Barber of Little Rock
• Island in Between
• The Last Repair Shop
• Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó

Who Will Win: I think this is a toss-up between “Last Repair Shop” and “Book Banning.” I will lean toward the more in-depth “Last Repair Shop.”

Who Could Win: As a political statement, I could certainly see the Academy going with “The ABCs of Book Banning.”

Who Should Win: “The Last Repair Shop” was the highlight, though “Island in Between” was good, too.

Best Live Action Short

• The After
• Invincible
• Knight of Fortune
• Red, White and Blue
• The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Who Will Win: Another one that’s a bit of a toss-up. It will either go to Wes Anderson’s “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” which has the director’s well-known attention to detail, or to “Red, White and Blue,” a drama about abortion. Because of the artistry, my take is it will be “Henry Sugar.”

Who Could Win: Again, this could easily be a political pick and have it be “Red, White and Blue,” which does have a powerful ending.

Who Should Win: Overall, I’d go with “Henry Sugar.”

Best Animated Short

• Letter to a Pig
• Ninety-Five Senses
• Our Uniform
• Pachyderme
• War Is Over!

Who Will Win: “War is Over,” sadly, looks like the frontrunner.

Who Could Win: This could be another political pick, with “Letter to a Pig” potentially winning. The film covers the issue of antisemitism, which obviously is relevant lately.

Who Should Win: I found “Our Uniform” creative and charming, and I’d vote for it.

Best Original Score

• American Fiction, Laura Karpman
• Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Williams
• Killers of the Flower Moon, Robbie Robertson †
• Oppenheimer, Ludwig Göransson
• Poor Things, Jerskin Fendrix

Who Will Win: “Oppenheimer.”

Who Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Who Should Win: “Oppenheimer” or “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Best Original Song

• The Fire Inside from Flamin’ Hot – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren
• I’m Just Ken” from Barbie – Music and lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
• It Never Went Away from American Symphony – Music and lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
• Wahzhazhe from Killers of the Flower Moon – Music and lyrics by Scott George
• What Was I Made For? from Barbie – Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell

Who Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie.”

Who Could Win: “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie.”

Who Should Win: “Wahzhazhe” from “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Best Sound

• The Creator
• Maestro
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
• Oppenheimer
• The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: Here is where we get into what’s called a technical sweep, where a movie picks up a lot of behind-the-scenes awards. It happened in 2015’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” and could happen with “Oppenheimer” this year.  My guess is it will and Sound will be included.

Who Could Win: “The Zone of Interest.”

Who Should Win: Both “Oppenheimer” and “Zone” are both well-deserving.

Best Production Design

• Barbie
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Who Will Win: “Poor Things.”

Who Could Win: “Barbie.”

Who Should Win: “Poor Things” or Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Best Cinematography

• El Conde
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Who Will Win: “Oppenheimer.”

Who Could Win: “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Who Should Win: “Oppenheimer.”

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

• Golda
• Maestro
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things
• Society of the Snow

Who Will Win: “Maestro.”

Who Could Win: “Poor Things.”

Who Should Win: “Poor Things,” but fine with “Maestro.”

Best Costume Design

• Barbie
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Napoleon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Who Will Win: “Poor Things.”

Who Could Win: “Barbie.”

Who Should Win: “Poor Things” or “Killers of the Flower Moon.”

Best Film Editing

• Anatomy of a Fall
• The Holdovers
• Killers of the Flower Moon
• Oppenheimer
• Poor Things

Who Will Win: “Oppenheimer.”

Who Could Win: “Anatomy of a Fall.”

Who Should Win: “Oppenheimer.”

Best Visual Effects

• The Creator
• Godzilla Minus One
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
• Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning 1
• Napoleon

Who Will Win: “Godzilla: Minus One.”

Who Could Win: “The Creator.”